6 Political Takeaways For President Biden From The Chaotic Afghanistan Withdrawal

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People run alongside a U.S. Air Force C-17 transport plane as it moves down a runway of the Kabul airport on Monday.

Verified UGC via AP

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Verified UGC via AP

After The Taliban Takeover Of Kabul, Here’s What We Know

Here are six takeaways on what the withdrawal might mean for Biden:

1. The chaotic withdrawal cuts against Biden’s competence narrative

If there was one thing Biden ran on in 2020 against former President Donald Trump, it was the idea that he knows how to govern competently. It was an underpinning of what his presidency was supposed to stand for — as the antithesis of Trump.

What’s happened in Afghanistan over the past week — with troops being sent back in to help with the evacuation — is a gut punch to that narrative, even if in the long run the policy direction winds up being one Americans agree with.

2. Presidents should never offer rosy assessments or predictions

Biden promised that the U.S. would exit Afghanistan in a safe and orderly way; there’d be no hasty rush to the exit, and that it was «highly unlikely» that there would be a Taliban takeover of the entire country — let alone this quickly.

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Those all turned out to be wrong. And it’s not the first time during his presidency. Speaking on July Fourth, Biden warned about the delta variant, but also declared that the U.S. was moving toward «independence» from the coronavirus. Then delta drove this latest surge.

It’s a lesson that Biden should have learned in his decades in Washington, D.C. — it’s never a good idea for a president to make predictions he has no control over.

Arguably, had Biden been more measured in his assessment of the withdrawal, the political backlash might not be so swift.

3. Biden is reflecting a new consensus of America turning inward

America’s post-World War II role in the world was defined by an alliance with Western democracies and a Cold War against Russia. But since the fall of the Iron Curtain and 9/11, the U.S. role in the world has been less well-defined.

After years of war, economic turmoil and a pandemic, America appears ready to turn inward with more of a focus on domestic problems.

Biden’s foreign policy doctrine is not quite Trump’s «America First.» He’s reengaged with traditional U.S. allies and wants to know and be respected by world leaders. But he is turning his focus far more to domestic policy and pulled back internationally than the Biden who was chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

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4. Despite the negative coverage, Americans still don’t appear to want to stay in Afghanistan

To the point of turning inward, Americans have long seen the war in Afghanistan as unpopular.

A snap poll of the events unfolding over the weekend found that while support for the full withdrawal declined dramatically, a plurality — about half — still wanted out and not much more than a third of Americans want to stay. Other surveys have previously found Americans feel little obligation to the people or government of Afghanistan or ensuring democracy there.

Expect feelings on Afghanistan to get somewhat more partisan, considering the attention it’s getting, and it will be interesting to see how those numbers settle in the next few weeks and months.

5. The real test for Biden is whether terrorist groups are able to reconstitute and attack Americans

Biden noted that counter-terrorism, not nation-building, should be the U.S. focus, especially considering the original mission in Afghanistan after 9/11.

«This is something that we do in many other countries around the world where we do not have boots on the ground,» a senior administration official told NPR’s Franco Ordoñez on Monday. «We do this in Somalia. We do this in Yemen. We do this in parts of Syria. We do this in other parts of eastern North Africa. We do this in places where we do not have boots on the ground.»

Given the history of the Taliban giving cover to al-Qaida and now without a U.S. military presence, this is going to be the test of success (or failure) for Biden as it relates to his Afghanistan policy. And how might what’s transpired over the past week mean for how other bad actors test Biden?

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6. Democrats’ clock on their domestic agenda just started ticking faster

The Afghanistan withdrawal is just one more issue mounted on the plate of attacks against Biden and Democrats. Even before this, history and redistricting were on Republicans’ side, and Republicans and Democrats are starting to paint a picture of a likely Republican takeover of the House in 2022.

That means, as the fog of what happened this week in Afghanistan starts to clear and eyes move again toward the Democrats’ domestic agenda, the multitrillion-dollar spending deals will likely gain more urgency, because they may be the last things Democrats are able to get done before the next presidential election.

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