How Bad Has The Pandemic Been For Childhood Vaccinations?

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Vaccines for measles-rubella and cervical cancer are administered at a school in Jimbaran, Indonesia. Vaccination rates have dropped during the pandemic.

Keyza Widiatmika/NurPhoto via Getty Images

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Keyza Widiatmika/NurPhoto via Getty Images

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The results are alarming: Compared to last year, the percentage of kids worldwide who got their basic vaccines has dropped from 84% to 70%.

«We haven’t seen that level of coverage in 25 years,» notes Lim.

One caveat: To come up with this estimate so quickly, Lim’s team had to extrapolate from a less comprehensive set of data than they usually use. That’s one reason they’re not releasing the new vaccination rates country-by country. But overall, Lim says, «this effect is not isolated to any one region of the world. It’s something that’s really affected all countries,» rich and poor alike.

There is, however, reason to hope that vaccinations could return to prior levels as soon as the pandemic is over. For instance, Lim’s team has found that in places where social distancing has eased and cellphone data indicates people are starting to move around again, there’s been a corresponding rise in vaccine coverage. But he says it’s possible that trend will not hold across all countries.

Seth Berkley, head of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization or GAVI, is particularly worried about children in vulnerable situations. For instance, he says, «those living in urban slums, which are growing rapidly around the world, or those living as displaced people in refugee camps.»

It has taken years of effort by GAVI, other international partners and governments to extend vaccinations to these hard-to-reach children. «So the question,» says Berkely, «is, are some of those groups that we’ve been fighting to get into the system over the last decade or two going to again become difficult [to reach]. And therefore it’s going to take us a long time to reach them.»

Also, even if vaccination rates are quickly brought back up, what of those who missed their chance this year?

Damian Walker, a health economist with the thinktank Center for Global Development, is not optimistic: «I think there’s going to be a lost generation of kids who never get what they needed.»

Walker notes that it may take a while for the impact of this gap to become clear. «When you vaccinate a kid, you’re really saving them from a death that might occur in a year’s time and for some diseases in 20 or 30 year’s time,» he says.

In fact Walker is part of a team now working to estimate how many indirect deaths the pandemic will ultimately cause. One thing is already clear, he says: «The collateral damage from this virus has been extensive.»