How Live Music Is Coping, And What The Near Future Will Bring
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A drive-in concert, held on April 24, 2020 in Aarhus, Denmark.
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The Satellite in LA, which has remained closed since the beginning of the pandemic, photographed on April 8, 2020.
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Then there’s the unpredictable nature of the pandemic itself. Even the most buttoned-up and flawlessly executed approach to pandemic-safe shows can be thwarted by a sudden change in rules as state and local governments react to the latest coronavirus infection trends, which continue to surge in many U.S. states. Tennessee, which Dr. Anthony Fauci warned was at risk of a surge in late June, is now seeing infections rise in nearly every county.
«It’s changing week to week,» says Dorf. «In our virtual office, we have a chart that breaks down the positivity rate in each market and looks at the trends, just like the scientists. We need to try and predict what’s going to happen in each place.»
The constant fluctuation can send business owners back to the drawing board when they least expect it. On June 22, Nashville began its transition into the less restrictive third phase of its reopening plan. But by the beginning of July, the surging infections forced officials to roll back to a «modified phase two» and put new restrictions on restaurants and bars, the latter of which were ordered to close for 14 days.
If safely operating shows during a pandemic is tricky in one city, scaling the model across locales is practically impossible. Outside Nashville, City Winery also operates in seven other U.S. markets, most of which remain quiet for now. After outdoor concerts proved successful in Nashville, the company announced in mid-June that it would launch a new socially distant outdoor music series called Concerts in the Vineyard at its location in New York’s Hudson Valley. The next day, New York State authorities told Dorf that the concerts were forbidden, and that moving ahead with them could cost the venue its liquor license.
Dorf has spent the last several weeks trying to convince New York authorities, including Governor Andrew Cuomo himself, that his company’s approach to outdoor shows is not only safe, but could serve as a potential model for bringing live music back to life before a vaccine is ready.
Finally, in early August, Cuomo agreed to let City Winery’s Hudson Valley concert series proceed beginning in September. That is, assuming nothing changes.
When ‘New Normal’ Is A Moving Target
For City Winery, this dizzying ping-pong of changes and discrepancies over time and across different locations has made it especially challenging to keep the music playing at even one of its locations, let alone the other seven.
The team’s frustration speaks to a wider issue that plagues the live music industry and plenty other aspects of life amidst the pandemic: Perpetual uncertainty. As the virus surges and the state of the pandemic evolves, it becomes difficult for people and businesses to adapt. Just when a reopening plan, city health regulation, or state-issued mandate seems set, something changes.
Sudden shifts in reality are now the norm everywhere. Back in Philadelphia, the owners of Johnny Brenda’s aren’t planning any more rooftop shows. It’s not that there’s a lack of interest; after the first one, McNamara said they got messages from agents for bigger national acts interested in playing on the roof. Ideas quickly started brewing. Then, like clockwork, everything changed again: On Jul. 14, Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney announced a citywide ban on any events consisting of more than 50 people, which will remain in effect until at least Feb. 2021.
«Everything is so fluid that it’s really hard for us to ever plan anything like this again, even secretly,» says McNamara. «it feels like a different environment now.»
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Meanwhile, Pat Finnerty and his friends are wondering when and where they might be able to play another socially distanced pop-up show. Finnerty says he’s thinking about doing something along the city’s waterfront, or at Philly landmarks that might be safe places for people to distantly congregate. Eventually, he wants to park two socially-distanced boats in New York Harbor in front of the Statue of Liberty, where his band will play a set of Neil Young covers.
For now, given the surges and constant changes, Finnerty is content to wait things out a bit longer. «Me and my buddies have all said no to a million gigs,» he says. «Personally, my own conscience says we need to slow down. There are too many ass****s out there right now.»
Can The Live Music Industry Future-Proof Itself?
Ric Leichtung is heartened to learn about the Philly rooftop gig. «Those are the stories that keep people going,» he says.
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hanging out at the new AdHoc HQ ✌️?
But his vantage point, from just up the road in Brooklyn where he runs the indie concert promoter AdHoc, only allows for so much optimism. For Leichtung, it’s hard to envision a rooftop DIY show series atop the warehouses of Bushwick anytime soon. As the first major epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S., New York has been locked down and under especially strict restrictions since the beginning. The city’s music venues are likely to remain silent until a vaccine is introduced, if not months later. «That means, what, next April? June? Sometime in 2022?» he wonders. «It’s insanely scary, honestly.»
Liechtung agrees with the industry consensus that a federal stimulus is the only way for the independent venues in New York and beyond to survive long enough to see the end of the pandemic. «The consolation prize of online events or limited gatherings simply is not enough,» he says.
While such an intervention would prevent an imminent cultural catastrophe, it may only be the first step toward ensuring a sustainable future for independent artists and spaces. But just as the pandemic exposes systemic weaknesses in the industry, many believe it also presents an opportunity to start building something more resilient.
Mat Dryhurst, a musician and Berlin-based professor at NYU’s Clive Davis Institute of Recorded Music, has spent a lot of time thinking about alternative models for how venues could be owned, interlinked, supported, and even defined in the future.
«There are ways to develop economies around the thing that people really do cherish about music, which is ultimately a sense of belonging and of coming together,» says Dryhurst.
Of course, it’s the «coming together» part of grassroots music culture that has been rendered physically impossible by the pandemic. But, given the recent rise in crowdfunding drives, Bandcamp Fridays and other digital expressions of support for independent music, Dryhurst can’t help but wonder if stronger connections could be built between digital communities and physical spaces.
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Rather than waiting for an emergency to solicit donations, DIY music spaces and medium-sized venues could build deeper digital communities and experiment with support models like memberships and subscriptions. Something like Patreon, but for places.
A membership-supported music club model might not work for every venue, but spaces that offer enough value to people in the community may well find a sustainable source of revenue. In some places, this model of community-based support could even be taken a few steps further, into a shared community ownership of spaces.
«There are also other possibilities for venues beyond music,» Dryhurst points out. Plenty of small DIY music venues already serve other functions during daytime hours, such as educational workshops, creative workspaces, and providing various community services. In doing so, those spaces become more essential to the community around them. And ultimately, Dryhurst hopes, less prone to the kind of existential threat posed by pandemics or future climate catastrophes.
«My hope is that over the next year, we’ll start moving away from a reactive space into that more generative space,» Dryhurst says. «What could be built that would be more resilient in case something like this happens again? «
As an academic, Dryhurst recognizes the inherent privilege of being able to toss around big ideas at a safe distance from the industry trenches. As a musician, he hopes something sticks, because he can’t wait to crawl back in.
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