New England Is Facing Its First Direct Hurricane Landfall In 30 Years

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Tropical Storm Henri is predicted to become a hurricane before reaching the coast of southern New England. In this graphic, the bright colors depict the likely path of tropical-storm-force winds, which have a minimum threshold of 39 mph.

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In addition to strong winds and heavy rain, forecasters are warning of a storm surge that could inundate land with 3 to 5 feet of water.

«Confidence is high that the event will occur Sunday into Monday,» the National Weather Service office in Boston said in a briefing early Friday. It added that damaging winds were especially possible east of Henri’s track, while rains could cause flooding to the west of the storm’s path.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area; forecasters normally issue the alerts roughly 48 hours before they expect the first tropical storm-force winds to arrive. The first tropical storm winds from Henri could reach the shore late Saturday.

New England is under its first hurricane watch in years

When the NHC issued its advisory early Friday, «it had been nearly TEN YEARS since a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Southern New England,» meteorologist Aaron Perry of NBC Boston said on Twitter.

The alert comes just one day after New England marked the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Bob’s landfall on New England.

Bob wrecked swaths of the coast and knocked out electricity in Cape Cod and other areas — in some cases, for as long as two weeks.

«At least 17 people were killed in the storm, the costliest in New England with more than $1.5 billion in property damage,» The Associated Press reports.

Henri’s impact will depend on its path and timing

At midday on Friday, Henri was roughly parallel with the Georgia-Florida line, hundreds of miles from the coast. The storm was moving northwest, but it is expected to make a sharp right turn toward the north.

It’s expected to strengthen over the next two days as it traverses very warm waters, likely becoming a hurricane by Saturday. It will then cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream.

«Henri’s expected slower motion over the colder water south of New England should induce quick weakening,» the hurricane center said in its 8 a.m. ET forecast, «but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from reaching the coast as a hurricane.»

That effect of the slow pace is unclear. As member station WBUR reports:

«The slow movement may mean that it turns up the waters of the coastline. This mixing would cool the waters, causing the storm to lose its strength rather fast. But on the other side of the coin, slow movement can allow a lot of rain to fall, and could cause storm surge to last longer.»

Hurricane Grace is bearing down on Mexico

People along Mexico’s central eastern coast are bracing for the arrival of Hurricane Grace, which is currently packing sustained winds up to 85 mph, the National Hurricane Center said on Friday.

A hurricane warning is in effect along the coast, from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo.

«A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours,» the NHC said.