Taiwan’s U.S. Friendship Comes With Benefits — And China’s Wrath

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22 Окт 2020, 01:54

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Five U.S.-made F-16 jets fly over the Presidential Office during Taiwan’s National Day in Taipei on Oct. 10.

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In the years since, beside sending senior officials to Taiwan, the Trump administration has increased the frequency of U.S. Navy ships sailing through the Taiwan Strait, and sold arms to Taiwan with greater regularity — and less concern about China’s objections — than past administrations.

The U.S. opened a new $255 million representative office in 2019 in Taipei, to Beijing’s displeasure.

Also last year, the administration approved the $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, the biggest arms package in dollar terms since 1992, according to Mazza.

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Journalists tour the new office complex of the American Institute in Taiwan during a dedication ceremony in Taipei on June 12, 2018.

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Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen delivers a speech as she inaugurates an F-16 maintenance center at the Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. in Taichung, central Taiwan, on Aug. 28.

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The government of China’s leader Xi Jinping has been blocking Taiwan from participating in international bodies, including the World Health Organization, and poaching its diplomatic allies. Earlier this month a Taiwanese official was sent to a hospital after a dust-up with Chinese diplomats who allegedly crashed a party in Fiji.

In recent weeks, the Chinese military has ramped up live-fire drills, including some that simulate battle with Taiwan. China has flown more warplanes than ever across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, with an official in Beijing saying no such line exists. There are also reports that China has beefed up its missile force across from Taiwan with hypersonic DF-17 missiles.

Shelley Rigger, an expert on China and Taiwan politics at North Carolina’s Davidson College, believes Trump sees Taiwan solely through the lens of his China policy, which increases risks for the island.

«The administration has been full of people who are vehemently anti-China, and they are willing to pull Taiwan into that conflict as a pawn,» she says.

The U.S. could show real commitment to Taiwan by deepening economic ties and negotiating a bilateral trade agreement, she says. Last month, Taiwan’s President Tsai tried to pave the way for that by opening the Taiwanese market to U.S. beef and pork — a major step that was domestically risky and unpopular.

Washington has yet to reciprocate, with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer reportedly against moving forward with Taiwan so as not to upset the «Phase One» trade deal the U.S. struck with China earlier this year.

Rigger says that’s regrettable.

«I don’t think you are ever a good friend when you are throwing your pal in front of a bully because you are looking for a way to slow him down,» she says.

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Taiwan has been taking what it can get, while signaling to Beijing that it isn’t trying to upset the status quo.

In her National Day speech on Oct. 10, President Tsai said she was open to dialogue with Beijing. And last month, Taiwan’s foreign minister told NPR that the island was not seeking formal diplomatic relations with the United States at the moment.

But China’s Xi, so far, isn’t letting up.

Last week, China launched fresh military drills along the mainland’s coast and state media reported on a string of allegations against supposed spies from Taiwan caught in the mainland.

Analysts see the measures as an attempt to push public opinion in Taiwan against Tsai and her party, and away from the United States. But these steps are likely to backfire, says Joanne Chang, an expert in U.S.-Taiwan-China relations at the Taiwanese government-linked research institute, Academia Sinica.

«The fundamental thing China, Chinese leaders should understand [is] more unfair treatment [and] harassment toward Taiwan will make more support from U.S. and international community,» she says.

Beijing’s «zero sum approach toward Taiwan» is the main cause of warmer U.S.-Taiwan relations, she adds.

With China’s military capabilities improving, and Xi on track for a possible third term as president, the next few years could get even more dangerous, according to Alexander Huang, a former Taiwan national security official who teaches at Tamkang University, outside Taipei.

«I think the issue is to buy time. Taiwan should not challenge Beijing when Xi Jinping is still around,» he says.

Taiwan should focus, instead, on strengthening its economy and defenses, he says — regardless of who wins the U.S. election or how much help Washington is willing to offer.